1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	293890	Carnavalesco	Current	18	7.99	0.00	2.50
			Estimated	1,000	7.56	6.23	2.17

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
The most awaited day of the year in Brazil has arrived: Carnaval! And this time you’re not just a spectator, you are a carnavalesco! After twelve months of preparation and rehearsal, the time has come for you to lead your school into the sambadrome and direct the best parade of your career! Carnavalesco is a dice allocation game in which players strive to place combinations of dice that fulfill the unique requirements of nine different categories. The objective of Carnavalesco is to become the parade director of the best samba school in all of Brazil. To do so, you must maximize your scores in the nine categories that samba schools are judged in. Each category has a specific combination of dice that guarantee perfect 10’s, but it is also possible to earn perfect scores by placing dice that minimize your losses while earning bonus points. Although difficult, it is not impossible to score perfect marks in all nine categories – you’re not just striving for the highest score, but also a perfect score. The difference between first and second place in Brazilian Carnaval can be as little as one-tenth of a point, so minimizing your losses in one category can be as important as maximizing your scores in the rest! The samba school with the highest score at the end of the game is the champion of this year’s Carnaval parade, and you will always be remembered as being the carnavalesco who led it to victory! —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/293890

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Carnavalesco? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Carnavalesco. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Carnavalesco. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	293890	Carnavalesco	1.00	0.00	7.99	2.17	18
1	2017	199561	Sagrada	0.95	7.36	7.51	1.93	31,978
2	2019	269752	Noctiluca	0.81	6.24	7.16	1.36	1,455
3	2019	281259	The Isle of Cats	0.79	7.52	7.87	2.31	13,443
4	2010	73439	Troyes	0.79	7.55	7.74	3.46	20,747
5	2020	297030	Tekhenu: Obelisk of the Sun	0.78	7.10	7.83	4.09	4,114
6	2019	262540	Freshwater Fly	0.77	6.06	7.26	2.37	880
7	2019	283863	The Magnificent	0.75	6.69	7.60	3.14	2,422
8	2016	170561	Valeria: Card Kingdoms	0.75	6.89	7.45	2.00	4,782
9	2011	84876	The Castles of Burgundy	0.74	8.01	8.13	3.00	52,346
10	2016	192312	Mr. Cabbagehead's Garden	0.74	6.03	7.20	1.72	791
11	2015	171273	FUSE	0.73	6.73	7.03	1.66	7,826
12	2020	283155	Calico	0.73	7.34	7.72	2.20	10,473
13	2008	37380	Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age	0.73	6.68	6.87	1.78	11,754
14	2016	177736	A Feast for Odin	0.73	7.96	8.20	3.85	21,689
15	2019	267127	Aerion	0.72	6.35	7.43	1.95	1,403
16	2019	244099	Herbaceous Sprouts	0.72	5.94	7.06	1.80	708
17	2020	291511	Medici: The Dice Game	0.72	5.65	6.67	1.50	264
18	2020	229782	Roland Wright: The Dice Game	0.71	5.61	6.71	2.00	178
19	2019	244305	Coral Islands	0.71	5.54	6.06	2.00	127
20	2020	308329	The Batman Who Laughs Rising	0.71	5.63	7.38	2.40	162
21	2018	230267	Dice Settlers	0.71	6.34	6.96	2.93	2,465
22	2020	313698	Monster Expedition	0.71	5.89	6.92	2.07	724
23	2019	283294	Yukon Airways	0.70	6.36	7.42	2.78	1,486
24	2014	150926	Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age	0.70	5.96	6.62	2.24	1,223
25	2014	157809	Nations: The Dice Game	0.70	6.59	6.96	2.00	5,280

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Carnavalesco while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	293890	Carnavalesco	0.00	1.00	0.00	7.99	2.17	18
1	2017	199561	Sagrada	6.99	0.95	7.36	7.51	1.93	31,978
2	2011	84876	The Castles of Burgundy	5.94	0.74	8.01	8.13	3.00	52,346
3	2010	73439	Troyes	5.93	0.79	7.55	7.74	3.46	20,747
4	2019	281259	The Isle of Cats	5.91	0.79	7.52	7.87	2.31	13,443
5	2016	177736	A Feast for Odin	5.78	0.73	7.96	8.20	3.85	21,689
6	2020	297030	Tekhenu: Obelisk of the Sun	5.51	0.78	7.10	7.83	4.09	4,114
7	2019	266192	Wingspan	5.44	0.69	7.94	8.10	2.45	61,562
8	2020	283155	Calico	5.36	0.73	7.34	7.72	2.20	10,473
9	2016	170561	Valeria: Card Kingdoms	5.14	0.75	6.89	7.45	2.00	4,782
10	2018	199792	Everdell	5.11	0.65	7.88	8.09	2.81	32,930
11	2016	167791	Terraforming Mars	5.10	0.62	8.27	8.41	3.25	78,020
12	2019	269752	Noctiluca	5.04	0.81	6.24	7.16	1.36	1,455
13	2019	283863	The Magnificent	5.04	0.75	6.69	7.60	3.14	2,422
14	2014	155426	Castles of Mad King Ludwig	5.04	0.68	7.37	7.54	2.66	23,531
15	2015	171273	FUSE	4.93	0.73	6.73	7.03	1.66	7,826
16	2008	37380	Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age	4.86	0.73	6.68	6.87	1.78	11,754
17	2018	244522	That's Pretty Clever!	4.82	0.65	7.41	7.61	1.88	18,627
18	2020	306735	Under Falling Skies	4.72	0.65	7.30	7.86	2.46	6,083
19	2019	286096	Tapestry	4.70	0.65	7.21	7.46	2.90	15,462
20	2016	169426	Roll Player	4.67	0.64	7.28	7.50	2.42	16,563
21	2019	216600	Fantastic Factories	4.66	0.68	6.85	7.52	2.16	3,628
22	2019	262540	Freshwater Fly	4.65	0.77	6.06	7.26	2.37	880
23	2019	265736	Tiny Towns	4.64	0.66	7.07	7.30	2.07	14,262
24	2014	157809	Nations: The Dice Game	4.62	0.70	6.59	6.96	2.00	5,280
25	2019	267127	Aerion	4.56	0.72	6.35	7.43	1.95	1,403

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	293890	Carnavalesco	Precisamente	Ronald Halliday	Gustavo Torqueto	Dice	Country: Brazil	Dice Rolling
						Music	Crowdfunding: Catarse	Open Drafting
						Puzzle	Holidays: Mardi Gras	Pattern Building
							Mechanism: Dice Drafting	Push Your Luck
							Players: Games with Solitaire Rules	Set Collection
								Solo / Solitaire Game
								Turn Order: Progressive
								Variable Set-up

Individual Game Analysis